08 APR 2013 by ideonexus

 The Planning Fallacy

Professor McGonagall opened her mouth, then closed it. The witch rubbed the bridge of her nose, looking thoughtful. "Mr. Potter... if I were to offer to listen to you for a while... is there anything you'd like to talk to me about?" "About what?" "About why you're convinced you must always be on your guard against terrible things happening to you." Harry stared at her in puzzlement. That was a self-evident axiom. "Well..." Harry said slowly. He tried to organise his thoughts. How could he e...
Folksonomies: cognitive bias fallacy
Folksonomies: cognitive bias fallacy
  1  notes

We underestimate how close we are to completing a task, the only solution is to consider how long it took us to complete the last time we did it.